Risk & Performance Disclosure

This page states, in plain language, the limits of what Alphabit's tools can tell you. We'd rather over-disclose than have you discover a caveat later.

Not financial advice

Nothing produced by Alphabit — risk scores, zones, signals, backtests, charts, or commentary — is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Alphabit is not registered as an investment adviser with any regulator. All investment decisions are yours alone.

How to read our backtest numbers

Where the Service shows backtested results, be aware of what they are and aren't:

• They are in-sample.The model's factor weights were informed and refined by studying historical data — including the same periods the backtest runs over. That makes backtest results illustrative of the strategy's logic, not evidence of a validated, out-of-sample track record.
• They are constructed with hindsight. Some studies include modeled trading fees and taxes, but a backtest cannot reproduce your actual costs, tax circumstances, slippage, liquidity, downtime, or the psychological difficulty of following a signal during a crash.
• A genuine track record takes time. Weekly model outputs are published with dates. When a calculation error is corrected, the original publication remains available and the correction is labeled as a new edition. The public record explains each edition and the limits of its verification. Forward results, including corrections, are the evidence on which the model should be judged.

Crypto-specific risks

Crypto assets are exceptionally volatile and can lose most or all of their value. Historical patterns the model relies on — valuation cycles, funding dynamics, macro correlations — may stop working at any time. Regulatory changes, exchange failures, and protocol-level events can cause losses no market model anticipates.

Past performance

Past performance, whether real or simulated, does not guarantee future results. No representation is made that any account or strategy will achieve results similar to any shown.

Related reading: Methodology (including a plain-language limitations section) · Terms of Service