Bitcoin Risk Model — the signal, 4 months ago
Historically favorable conditions — the model leans toward deploying capital.
Built on the approach the founder has traded live with his own capital since December 2021 — the story.
A risk statement about position sizing, not a price prediction or a directive to trade. See the full methodology →
How to read this
The score is about how much risk you're taking at today's prices — not a forecast of where the price goes next.
Undervalued
Conditions the model reads as historically favorable. This is where a risk-aware plan leans into buying — not a promise the price won't fall further.
Neutral
No strong edge either way, and where most weeks land. Keep your regular plan running and avoid reacting to noise.
Protect
Historically stretched. The model leans toward trimming exposure or pausing new buys — a statement about risk, not a top call.
Risk score over time
Every daily reading against Bitcoin's price. The default 5-day average keeps the line legible; switch to Daily for the unsmoothed score and hover any point for its exact value. The last 4 months are for signed-in users.
What's driving the score
The model weighs 4 families of on-chain and market signals. The specific indicators inside each family — and how they're combined — are part of the proprietary model.
On-chain & Valuation
5Cycle & Price Extension
7Momentum & Sentiment
4Supply & Macro
2Explore individual public indicators in the research labs. The production model's exact weights remain proprietary; a per-factor model breakdown is not currently included.
<iframe src="https://alphabitlab.com/embed/risk-model" title="Alphabit the public risk gauge" width="300" height="340" style="border:none;max-width:100%"></iframe>
<p>Source: <a href="https://alphabitlab.com/widgets">Alphabit</a></p>Unlock this week's signal.
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Not financial advice. Backtested behavior is in-sample and illustrative — see the disclosure.