Is Bitcoin holding its bull-market floor?

Recent crossovers

It's the zone between two moving averages of Bitcoin's weekly close — the 20-week simple moving average (20W SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (21W EMA). Both track roughly the same five months of price action, but the EMA weights recent weeks more heavily, so the two lines diverge slightly and trace out a band rather than a single line.

20 and 21 weeks (roughly one quarter) is long enough to filter out normal weekly volatility but short enough to react within a market cycle. Pairing a simple and an exponential average of nearly the same length gives a natural range instead of a single line to react to — price dipping into the band during an uptrend has repeatedly resolved as a buyable pullback rather than a trend change.

• Bullish crossover — the 21W EMA crosses back above the 20W SMA and holds for at least three weeks, consistent with recent price action strengthening relative to the trailing quarter.
• Bearish crossover — the 21W EMA crosses below the 20W SMA and holds for at least three weeks, consistent with recent weeks weakening relative to the trailing quarter.
• Crossovers that flip back within a couple of weeks (whipsaws) are filtered out and not marked — only a sustained change in ordering counts.

• Both averages are computed on weekly closes from the same BTC history that powers the risk model.
• The 21W EMA is seeded with a simple average of its first 21 closes, then compounds forward — the standard convention.
• Crossovers require the new EMA/SMA ordering to hold for at least three consecutive weeks before being marked.
• Past band behavior is not a guarantee of future behavior.