30-Day Return
Bitcoin's percentage price change over the trailing 30 days -- pure price momentum, not a survey- or social-based sentiment gauge (see the Sentiment tab for those). Strongly positive readings mark euphoric short-term rallies; strongly negative readings mark sharp short-term drawdowns. Moves beyond roughly +/-30% in a single month are rare outside of extreme bull or bear regimes.
Score over time
Every reading in 30-Day Return's history, on the same 0–10 scale. The last 4 months are for signed-in users.
Scored 0–10 by an expanding (no-lookahead) percentile rank against 30-Day Return's full history — the same methodology behind Alphabit's composite Risk Model. A score of 7 means this indicator is currently higher than 70% of every reading it has ever produced.
One indicator is never the call.
The Risk Model reads this factor alongside seventeen others, weighted, into a single weekly score.
Not financial advice. Backtested behaviour is in-sample and illustrative — see the disclosure. How the model works is documented on the methodology page.