NUPL
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss -- the share of BTC's market cap that is unrealized profit (or loss) across all coins, equal to (MVRV - 1) / MVRV. Tracks the same underlying signal as MVRV from a percentage-of-market-cap view instead of a ratio.
Score over time
Every reading in NUPL's history, on the same 0–10 scale. The last 4 months are for signed-in users.
Scored 0–10 by an expanding (no-lookahead) percentile rank against NUPL's full history — the same methodology behind Alphabit's composite Risk Model. A score of 7 means this indicator is currently higher than 70% of every reading it has ever produced.
One indicator is never the call.
The Risk Model reads this factor alongside seventeen others, weighted, into a single weekly score.
Not financial advice. Backtested behaviour is in-sample and illustrative — see the disclosure. How the model works is documented on the methodology page.