Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Chart

Detected cycle tops & bottoms

Bitcoin's price history spans several orders of magnitude, so a log price scale is the standard way to view its long-term trend. This chart fits a power-law-style regression, ln(price) = a + b × ln(days since the Bitcoin genesis block), to the full daily price series -- that's the center trend line.

Major cycle tops and bottoms are detected automatically as swing highs/lows over roughly a one-year window, merging nearby candidates so each market cycle contributes one top and one bottom. The same log-regression fit is then run separately through just the detected tops (the upper band) and just the detected bottoms (the lower band) -- so the bands are a genuine statistical fit to Bitcoin's actual cycle extremes, not hand-drawn lines.

A second, lower green line runs the same slope as the lower band, but shifted down to the single day in Bitcoin's history that sat furthest below that trend -- so it has never been breached by an actual daily close. It's a stricter, more conservative floor than the lower band for anyone who wants a wider margin of safety.

• Price at or below the conservative support line would be in territory Bitcoin has never historically closed below relative to trend.
• Price near the lower band has historically marked accumulation zones, at or beyond past cycle bottoms.
• Price near the center trend is in the middle of Bitcoin's long-term growth channel.
• Price near the upper band has historically marked overvaluation zones, at or beyond past cycle tops.

• Daily BTC price history from CoinMetrics (free community API), back to January 2011.
• The center line is an ordinary-least-squares fit across all daily closes; the bands are the same fit run through only the automatically detected cycle tops or bottoms.
• The conservative support line reuses the lower band's slope, with its intercept set to the single most extreme historical dip below that slope -- a floor, not an independent regression.
• With only a handful of detected cycle extremes, the bands are sensitive to any single point -- treat them as an illustrative channel, not precise support/resistance levels.
• The most recent months are excluded from cycle-top/bottom detection until enough time has passed to confirm them, so the newest price action won't yet be marked as a cycle extreme.
• Everything from today through the end of 2028 is a forward projection of the regression formulas, not new price data -- shown with no price line since actual future prices are unknown.
• This is a statistical fit to historical prices, not a prediction. Past cycle behavior is not a guarantee of future behavior.