Supply in Profit/Loss
The share of circulating BTC supply currently held at an unrealized profit versus loss, based on each coin's last on-chain acquisition price. Profit and loss are complementary -- they always sum to 100% -- so the two move in a mirrored pattern: near 100% in profit at euphoric tops, near 100% in loss at capitulation lows.
Supply in profit vs. loss
The share of Bitcoin supply held at an unrealized profit or loss, based on the price each coin last moved at. The two are complementary, so the areas cross and pinch — wide apart at cycle extremes, tight near the 50/50 split.
Risk score over time
Every reading in Supply in Profit/Loss's history, on the same 0–10 scale. The last 4 months are for signed-in users.
Scored 0–10 by an expanding (no-lookahead) percentile rank against Supply in Profit/Loss's full history — the same methodology behind Alphabit's composite Risk Model. A score of 7 means this indicator is currently higher than 70% of every reading it has ever produced.
One indicator is never the call.
The Risk Model reads this factor alongside seventeen others, weighted, into a single weekly score.
Not financial advice. Backtested behaviour is in-sample and illustrative — see the disclosure. How the model works is documented on the methodology page.