Prediction Market Divergence
BetaFreeWhere real-money crowds and the Alphabit risk model disagree about Bitcoin. For every open BTC price market on Polymarket and Kalshi, we compare the crowd's implied probability with the historical frequency of that outcome in market regimes like the current one. Divergence is a research signal, not a trade recommendation.
BTC spot
$64,445
live
Markets tracked
154
50 scored · 51 skipped
History behind estimates
620 weeks
since 2014-09-21 · ~89 in-regime samples
Cycle position
Year+2 (historically bear)
Calendar years since the last halving — estimates below condition on this too
Largest divergences right now
Scored markets with ≥30 in-regime samples, ≥$5k of activity, and a gap of 10 points or more.
Polymarket+33pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
market 36%model 69%exp 5mo
score-only (ignoring cycle): 50%
Polymarket+30pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
market 53%model 82%exp 5mo
score-only (ignoring cycle): 58%
Polymarket+26pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
market 28%model 54%exp 5mo
score-only (ignoring cycle): 35%
Kalshi+24pp
Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
market 45%model 69%exp 5mo
score-only (ignoring cycle): 50%
All scored markets
104 listed-but-unscored markets(we saw them, we won't guess)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on July 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
- Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
- Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
- Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 27-August 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on July 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on July 29? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $57500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $55000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $50000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $47500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $45000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $42500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Market data: Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi public trade API, refreshed ~15 minutes; read-only, no orders. Model: Alphabit risk model weekly history (620 weeks). See methodology and disclosures. Nothing here is investment advice.