Prediction Market Divergence

BetaFree

Where real-money crowds and the Alphabit risk model disagree about Bitcoin. For every open BTC price market on Polymarket and Kalshi, we compare the crowd's implied probability with the historical frequency of that outcome in market regimes like the current one. Divergence is a research signal, not a trade recommendation.

BTC spot

$76,862

live

Current regime

Alphabit risk model zone

Markets tracked

171

97 scored · 44 skipped

History behind estimates

627 weeks

since 2014-09-21 · ~27 in-regime samples

Cycle position

Year+2 (historically bear)

Calendar years since the last halving — estimates below condition on this too

Largest divergences right now

Scored markets with ≥30 in-regime samples, ≥$5k of activity, and a gap of 10 points or more.

Polymarket-43pp

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?

market 64%model 20%exp 2w

score-only (ignoring cycle): 43%

Polymarket-29pp

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 21?

market 78%model 48%exp 6d

score-only (ignoring cycle): 74%

Polymarket-27pp

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 14-20?

market 44%model 16%exp 5d

score-only (ignoring cycle): 30%

Polymarket-25pp

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?

market 39%model 13%exp 2w

score-only (ignoring cycle): 31%

All scored markets

Market	Venue	Type	Expires	Crowd	Model	Base rate	Δ	24h vol
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	30%	>99% n=27 ⚠	29%	+71pp	$557
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	20%	89% n=27 ⚠	19%	+69pp	$8k
Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?	Kalshi	touch ↓	4mo	25%	89% n=27 ⚠	19%	+64pp	$7k
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	43%	>99% n=27 ⚠	40%	+57pp	$545
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	14%	67% n=27 ⚠	13%	+52pp	$14k
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	61%	11% n=27 ⚠	67%	-49pp	$110k
Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?	Kalshi	touch ↓	4mo	18%	67% n=27 ⚠	13%	+49pp	$16k
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	87%	40% n=30	64%	-46pp	$10
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	64%	20% n=30	47%	-43pp	$106k
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	9%	48% n=27 ⚠	8%	+40pp	$69k
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	63%	>99% n=27 ⚠	54%	+37pp	$4k
Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?	Kalshi	touch ↓	4mo	13%	48% n=27 ⚠	8%	+36pp	$19k
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	43%	7% n=27 ⚠	58%	-35pp	$5k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	78%	48% n=31	77%	-29pp	$314
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	28%	<1% n=27 ⚠	51%	-28pp	$639
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↑	5d	44%	16% n=31	32%	-27pp	$31k
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	39%	13% n=30	33%	-25pp	$27k
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	45%	67% n=30	29%	+22pp	$40k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	90%	68% n=31	85%	-22pp	$453
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↑	5d	51%	29% n=31	46%	-21pp	—
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	46%	67% n=30	29%	+21pp	$8k
Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	4mo	21%	<1% n=27 ⚠	44%	-20pp	$2k
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	21%	<1% n=27 ⚠	44%	-20pp	$22k
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	27%	47% n=30	20%	+20pp	$24k
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	14%	33% n=30	13%	+19pp	$7k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	28%	47% n=30	20%	+19pp	$5k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	16%	33% n=30	13%	+18pp	$2k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	95%	77% n=31	88%	-18pp	$3k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $65000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	8%	23% n=30	9%	+16pp	$2k
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↓	5d	8%	23% n=31	12%	+14pp	$16k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	59%	45% n=31	64%	-14pp	—
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↓	5d	19%	32% n=31	15%	+14pp	$14k
Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	4mo	14%	<1% n=27 ⚠	33%	-13pp	$4k
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	24%	10% n=30	24%	-13pp	$29k
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	11%	23% n=30	9%	+13pp	$81k
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	12%	<1% n=27 ⚠	33%	-11pp	$3k
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↓	5d	2%	13% n=31	4%	+11pp	$10k
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	89%	>99% n=27 ⚠	69%	+11pp	$15k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	98%	87% n=31	93%	-11pp	$7k
Will Bitcoin be above $119,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	4mo	10%	<1% n=27 ⚠	27%	-9pp	$1k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	39%	29% n=31	46%	-9pp	$310
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↑	5d	22%	13% n=31	22%	-9pp	$11k
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	1%	10% n=30	2%	+9pp	$9k
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↓	5d	4%	13% n=31	7%	+9pp	$14k
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	2%	10% n=30	2%	+8pp	$7k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $55000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	2%	10% n=30	2%	+8pp	$0
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	6%	13% n=30	5%	+8pp	$2k
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	8%	<1% n=27 ⚠	27%	-7pp	$4k
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	6%	13% n=30	5%	+7pp	$7k
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	8%	15% n=27 ⚠	4%	+7pp	$4k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $57500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	3%	10% n=30	2%	+7pp	$458
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	14%	7% n=30	19%	-7pp	$23k
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↓	5d	45%	52% n=31	23%	+7pp	$15k
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	3%	10% n=30	3%	+7pp	$4k
Will Bitcoin be above $129,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	4mo	7%	<1% n=27 ⚠	19%	-6pp	$0
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $60000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	4%	10% n=30	3%	+7pp	$3k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	22%	16% n=31	32%	-6pp	$637
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↓	5d	<1%	6% n=31	3%	+6pp	$1k
Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?	Kalshi	touch ↓	4mo	10%	15% n=27 ⚠	4%	+5pp	$1k
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	5%	<1% n=27 ⚠	19%	-5pp	$796
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↓	5d	50%	55% n=31	36%	+5pp	—
Will Bitcoin be above $139,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	4mo	5%	<1% n=27 ⚠	14%	-4pp	$0
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	4%	<1% n=27 ⚠	14%	-4pp	$1k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	6%	10% n=31	15%	+4pp	$12k
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	4%	<1% n=30	8%	-4pp	$11k
Will Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	4mo	4%	<1% n=27 ⚠	12%	-4pp	$789
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	3%	<1% n=27 ⚠	<1%	-3pp	$6k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $47500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	3%	<1% n=30	<1%	-3pp	$0
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	4%	6% n=31	11%	+3pp	$6k
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	3%	<1% n=27 ⚠	12%	-3pp	$51
Will Bitcoin be above $199,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	4mo	3%	<1% n=27 ⚠	6%	-2pp	$0
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	2%	<1% n=30	6%	-2pp	$5k
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	2%	<1% n=27 ⚠	11%	-2pp	$72
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	2%	<1% n=27 ⚠	<1%	-2pp	$10k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	2%	<1% n=30	<1%	-2pp	$0
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	2%	<1% n=30	4%	-2pp	$68k
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	2%	<1% n=27 ⚠	<1%	-2pp	$1k
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	4mo	6%	7% n=27 ⚠	<1%	+2pp	$749
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	2%	<1% n=27 ⚠	9%	-2pp	$2k
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↑	5d	2%	3% n=31	5%	+2pp	$2k
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	2%	<1% n=27 ⚠	10%	-2pp	$4k
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	5%	3% n=30	11%	-2pp	$3k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $50000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	2%	<1% n=30	<1%	-1pp	$0
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	12%	13% n=31	22%	+1pp	$4k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 21?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	2%	3% n=31	8%	+1pp	$12k
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	1%	<1% n=27 ⚠	7%	-1pp	$15
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↑	5d	1%	<1% n=31	4%	-1pp	$8k
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	1%	<1% n=27 ⚠	6%	-1pp	$892
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $35000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	1%	<1% n=30	<1%	-1pp	$0
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $45000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	1%	<1% n=30	<1%	-1pp	$0
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	4mo	<1%	<1% n=27 ⚠	3%	-1pp	$164
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↑	2w	8%	7% n=30	15%	-1pp	$14k
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↑	5d	11%	10% n=31	15%	-1pp	$10k
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↑	5d	6%	6% n=31	11%	0pp	$16k
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 14-20?	Polymarket	touch ↑	5d	3%	3% n=31	8%	0pp	$6k
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?	Polymarket	touch ↓	2w	74%	73% n=30	42%	0pp	$81k
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?	Kalshi	touch ↓	2w	74%	73% n=30	42%	0pp	$14k

74 listed-but-unscored markets(we saw them, we won't guess)

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 16? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on September 15? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 17? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 18? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 19? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 20? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution

Market data: Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi public trade API, refreshed ~15 minutes; read-only, no orders. Model: Alphabit risk model weekly history (627 weeks). See methodology and disclosures. Nothing here is investment advice.