Prediction Market Divergence

BetaFree

Where real-money crowds and the Alphabit risk model disagree about Bitcoin. For every open BTC price market on Polymarket and Kalshi, we compare the crowd's implied probability with the historical frequency of that outcome in market regimes like the current one. Divergence is a research signal, not a trade recommendation.

BTC spot

$76,274

live

Current regime

Alphabit risk model zone

Markets tracked

161

47 scored · 51 skipped

History behind estimates

633 weeks

since 2014-09-21 · ~99 in-regime samples

Cycle position

Year+2 (historically bear)

Calendar years since the last halving — estimates below condition on this too

Largest divergences right now

Scored markets with ≥30 in-regime samples, ≥$5k of activity, and a gap of 10 points or more.

Polymarket+24pp

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?

market 32%model 56%exp 9w

score-only (ignoring cycle): 38%

Polymarket+21pp

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

market 50%model 71%exp 9w

score-only (ignoring cycle): 51%

Polymarket+20pp

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?

market 19%model 38%exp 9w

score-only (ignoring cycle): 27%

Polymarket+14pp

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

market 11%model 24%exp 9w

score-only (ignoring cycle): 15%

All scored markets

Market	Venue	Type	Expires	Crowd	Model	Base rate	Δ	24h vol
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	32%	56% n=99	32%	+24pp	$33k
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	50%	71% n=99	47%	+21pp	$41k
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	19%	38% n=99	20%	+20pp	$33k
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	11%	24% n=99	12%	+14pp	$105k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	86%	73% n=100	83%	-13pp	$415
Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?	Kalshi	touch ↓	9w	14%	24% n=99	12%	+11pp	$57k
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	8%	18% n=99	9%	+11pp	$32k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	73%	63% n=100	74%	-10pp	$497
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	57%	47% n=100	57%	-10pp	$525
Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?	Kalshi	touch ↓	9w	11%	18% n=99	9%	+8pp	$9k
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	5%	10% n=99	4%	+5pp	$115k
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	3%	8% n=99	2%	+5pp	$23k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	21%	16% n=100	28%	-5pp	$11k
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	5%	<1% n=99	13%	-4pp	$11k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	1%	5% n=100	7%	+4pp	$256
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	18%	21% n=99	39%	+4pp	$11k
Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?	Kalshi	touch ↓	9w	5%	8% n=99	2%	+4pp	$328
Will Bitcoin be above $119,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	9w	4%	<1% n=99	13%	-4pp	$10k
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	7%	3% n=99	19%	-3pp	$22k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	<1%	4% n=100	4%	+3pp	$238
Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?	Kalshi	touch ↓	9w	7%	10% n=99	4%	+3pp	$6k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	2%	5% n=100	10%	+3pp	$329
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	3%	<1% n=99	8%	-3pp	$20k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	4%	7% n=100	14%	+3pp	$312
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	37%	34% n=100	41%	-3pp	$241
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	3%	<1% n=99	6%	-3pp	$1k
Will Bitcoin be above $129,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	9w	3%	<1% n=99	8%	-2pp	$4k
Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	9w	6%	3% n=99	19%	-2pp	$12k
Will Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	9w	2%	<1% n=99	6%	-2pp	$127
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	2%	<1% n=99	<1%	-2pp	$70
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	<1%	2% n=100	3%	+2pp	—
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	2%	<1% n=99	<1%	-2pp	$16k
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	12%	13% n=99	30%	+2pp	$19k
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	2%	<1% n=99	4%	-2pp	$1k
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	2%	<1% n=99	6%	-2pp	$5k
Will Bitcoin be above $139,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	9w	2%	<1% n=99	6%	-1pp	$5k
Will Bitcoin be above $199,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	9w	2%	<1% n=99	<1%	-1pp	$25
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	1%	<1% n=99	<1%	-1pp	$33k
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	1%	<1% n=99	3%	-1pp	$609
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	1%	<1% n=99	3%	-1pp	$53
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	<1%	<1% n=99	2%	-1pp	$171
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	<1%	<1% n=99	<1%	-1pp	—
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↓	9w	<1%	<1% n=99	<1%	0pp	$10k
Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?	Kalshi	touch ↑	9w	14%	13% n=99	30%	0pp	$42k
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	<1%	<1% n=99	<1%	0pp	$82k
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	touch ↑	9w	32%	31% n=99	47%	0pp	$51k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 5?	Polymarket	above at close	6d	10%	10% n=100	20%	0pp	$380

114 listed-but-unscored markets(we saw them, we won't guess)

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in October? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? — target too far from spot to estimate
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on October 30? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 31? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 1? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 3? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 2? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 4? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $65000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — expires in <5 days — below the weekly model's resolution

Market data: Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi public trade API, refreshed ~15 minutes; read-only, no orders. Model: Alphabit risk model weekly history (633 weeks). See methodology and disclosures. Nothing here is investment advice.