Interest rates, real yields, dollar strength, global liquidity, and credit conditions — the macro forces that set the backdrop for crypto market cycles.

2.5/ 10

Undervalued zone

2026-03-29 · delayed preview

Read this alongside the charts below: tightening liquidity, rising real yields, and a strong dollar have historically pushed the risk score toward Reduce; the reverse has historically pulled it toward Accumulate.

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Rates & Dollar

What the cost of money is doing

Fed Funds Rate

US Federal Reserve interest rate — the primary lever for monetary tightening and easing.

10Y Treasury Yield

US 10-year bond yield — a proxy for inflation expectations and the risk-free rate that competes with crypto.

10Y Real Yield (TIPS)

Inflation-adjusted 10-year yield. Falling real yields have historically coincided with risk-on conditions across crypto cycles.

US Dollar Index (Trade-Weighted)

Strength of the dollar vs. a basket of currencies. A rising dollar typically pressures crypto.

Liquidity & Credit

Is money flowing in or draining out

US M2 Money Supply

The most-watched global liquidity proxy — expansion has tended to lead crypto risk-taking; contraction has tended to precede drawdowns.

Financial Conditions Index

Chicago Fed's gauge of credit, leverage, and market stress. Above zero = tighter than average, below zero = looser than average.

Bitcoin Price

BTC/USD — line it up against the liquidity charts above for a quick eyeball comparison.

Charts powered by TradingView · Data is for informational purposes only, not financial advice.