Price Valuation Z-Score
A rolling 365-day z-score of Bitcoin's log price -- how many standard deviations current price sits from its own recent trend, using price alone with no on-chain input. Strongly positive readings mean price is statistically stretched above its recent range; strongly negative readings mean it's statistically stretched below it -- a magnitude above roughly 2 standard deviations in either direction is a notable statistical extreme.
Score over time
Every reading in Price Valuation Z-Score's history, on the same 0–10 scale. The last 4 months are for signed-in users.
Scored 0–10 by an expanding (no-lookahead) percentile rank against Price Valuation Z-Score's full history — the same methodology behind Alphabit's composite Risk Model. A score of 7 means this indicator is currently higher than 70% of every reading it has ever produced.
One indicator is never the call.
The Risk Model reads this factor alongside seventeen others, weighted, into a single weekly score.
Not financial advice. Backtested behaviour is in-sample and illustrative — see the disclosure. How the model works is documented on the methodology page.