Pi-Cycle Top
The 111-day moving average divided by two times the 350-day moving average. Depends only on price, no on-chain or sentiment data. The ratio crossing up through 1.0 has historically landed within days of major Bitcoin cycle tops (2013, Dec 2017, Apr 2021); well below 1.0 is far from a top signal.
Score over time
Every reading in Pi-Cycle Top's history, on the same 0–10 scale. The last 4 months are for signed-in users.
Scored 0–10 by an expanding (no-lookahead) percentile rank against Pi-Cycle Top's full history — the same methodology behind Alphabit's composite Risk Model. A score of 7 means this indicator is currently higher than 70% of every reading it has ever produced.
One indicator is never the call.
The Risk Model reads this factor alongside seventeen others, weighted, into a single weekly score.
Not financial advice. Backtested behaviour is in-sample and illustrative — see the disclosure. How the model works is documented on the methodology page.