Realized Volatility
30-day annualized standard deviation of Bitcoin's daily returns -- how turbulent price action has been recently, not its direction. Volatility has historically compressed late in accumulation/consolidation phases and expanded sharply around major trend changes either way, so high readings flag instability more than a bullish or bearish call. BTC's realized volatility has typically ranged roughly 30-100% annualized; readings toward the top of that range mark unusually turbulent regimes.
Score over time
Every reading in Realized Volatility's history, on the same 0–10 scale. The last 4 months are for signed-in users.
Scored 0–10 by an expanding (no-lookahead) percentile rank against Realized Volatility's full history — the same methodology behind Alphabit's composite Risk Model. A score of 7 means this indicator is currently higher than 70% of every reading it has ever produced.
One indicator is never the call.
The Risk Model reads this factor alongside seventeen others, weighted, into a single weekly score.
Not financial advice. Backtested behaviour is in-sample and illustrative — see the disclosure. How the model works is documented on the methodology page.