Read Bitcoin the way the model does.
Every signal behind the Risk Score, explained in plain English — what it measures, how it's calculated, and how it has actually behaved at cycle extremes. Plus data-backed guides to the questions people argue about.
New here? Read these 4, in order.
About 11 minutes end to end — enough to understand what the Risk Score is telling you, and what to do about it.
Browse the library
Grouped the way the Risk Model groups its own signals. Filter by topic, difficulty, or format.
All 30 articles, by topic
Valuation3
Is Bitcoin expensive or cheap relative to what holders actually paid?
MVRV Z-Score
How far Bitcoin's market cap sits above or below the aggregate cost basis of every coin in circulation.
Realized Cap
Values each coin at the price it last moved, not today's price — the building block behind MVRV and NUPL.
Puell Multiple
Daily miner revenue against its own one-year average — a read on mining-driven sell pressure.
Holder behavior5
What the people who already own coins are doing with them.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
The share of Bitcoin's market cap sitting in unrealized profit vs. loss — a read on cycle-stage psychology.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Whether coins moving on-chain right now are being sold at a profit or a loss, in real time.
HODL Waves
The age distribution of the circulating supply — how much is being traded versus held long-term.
Exchange Netflow
Net coin movement onto vs. off of exchanges — a proxy for near-term sell pressure or accumulation.
Bitcoin Whale Tracker: How to Read Exchange Inflows and Outflows
What the three exchange-flow types actually mean, and a simple framework for weighing whale activity against the Risk Score.
Momentum & cycles5
Where price sits against its own trend, and where that lands in the cycle.
The Complete Guide to Bitcoin Market Cycles
The four-phase pattern behind every Bitcoin halving cycle, and the tools to track where the current one stands.
Mayer Multiple
Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average — a simple, decades-tested overextension read.
Bull Market Support Band
Bitcoin’s 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA: how to read price breaks, the band’s midpoint and historical crossover markers.
Pi-Cycle Top Indicator
A moving-average crossover that has flagged every major Bitcoin cycle top within days since 2013.
The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator: Has It Ever Missed a Bitcoin Top?
It caught 2017 and April 2021's local top — then went silent through a much higher November 2021 peak and beyond.
Sentiment & rotation3
How the crowd feels, and where capital is rotating.
Fear & Greed Index
A 0–100 sentiment gauge blending volatility, momentum, and social data into one daily number.
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap — a read on whether capital is rotating into or out of altcoins.
Altcoin Season Index Explained: When Do Alts Actually Outperform Bitcoin?
How the 75/25 thresholds are calculated, and why the same reading can mean two different things depending on the trend.
Strategy & sizing4
Turning a read on the market into a position you can hold.
How Much Bitcoin Should I Own? A Risk-Based Position-Sizing Guide
Why there's no universal number, a starting range by risk tolerance, and how to adjust it with current conditions.
DCA vs. Lump Sum: What the Data Actually Shows
Why lump sum wins on average in a trending asset, why DCA wins on worst-case outcomes, and a risk-based middle ground.
Bitcoin DCA Calculator: What $100/Week Since 2020 Would Be Worth Today
Real historical results for three starting points, and why the 2022 start flips the usual DCA-vs-lump-sum outcome.
3x Bitcoin products: why daily leverage changes the return you receive
Two simple two-day examples show how compounding can separate a daily 3x objective from three times Bitcoin’s multi-day return.
Research & comparisons10
Original numbers on the questions people argue about.
Bitcoin Valuation Models Compared: S2F, Rainbow, MVRV & More
Six popular models: what they measure, documented misses, and how to judge their limits fairly.
On-Chain Metrics Compared
MVRV, Mayer Multiple, Pi-Cycle Top, and Puell Multiple, side by side — what each measures and when to use it.
Every Major Bitcoin Crash, Ranked by Depth and Recovery Time
The two deepest drawdowns took nearly two years to fully recover — and the most recent 53% drawdown hasn't recovered yet.
Bitcoin vs. S&P 500: Risk-Adjusted Returns Compared
Bitcoin's 6x return advantage since 2020 comes with 3.7x the volatility — on a return-per-unit-of-risk basis, the S&P 500 actually edges ahead.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Which Is the Better Inflation Hedge?
Bitcoin has outgained gold since 2020 — but gold held flat through 2022's inflation peak while Bitcoin fell 64%. Real numbers on both.
Bitcoin after the September jobs report: why revisions matter
A worked comparison of September payrolls and earlier revisions shows why one jobs headline cannot settle Bitcoin’s rate-cut narrative.
Bitcoin ETFs reported $678.9 million in outflows: the daily mix matters
A dated breakdown of Farside-reported Bitcoin ETF flows across the five U.S. sessions from October 5–9, 2026.
Eclair v0.14.5: what Lightning node operators should know
ACINQ recommends upgrading to Eclair v0.14.5, a security-hardening release. Here is what operators can verify and how the prior browser-API change fits in.
Switzerland approved its first retail Bitcoin ETF. What changes?
FINMA approved a Swiss retail fund investing directly in Bitcoin. Learn what the approval means, how the fund differs from existing products, and what it does not change.
Bitcoin ETF flows: why a missing fund value is not zero
A historical Farside example shows how a preliminary partial flow total changed after a missing fund value was reported.
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Risk Model
The signals above, blended into one 0–10 weekly reading: accumulate, hold, or protect.
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