Puell Multiple

Miners are paid in newly issued Bitcoin (the block subsidy, plus fees). The Puell Multiple values that day's issuance in USD, then divides it by the trailing 365-day average of the same figure:

A reading of 1.0 means today's miner revenue matches the past year's average; above 1.0 means miners are earning more than usual, below 1.0 means less. Because issuance is roughly fixed by the protocol, day-to-day movement in the multiple is driven mostly by price. It's named after David Puell, who introduced it.

Suppose miners collectively earn $60 million in newly issued BTC today, and the trailing 365-day average of that daily figure is $30 million. The Puell Multiple is:

A reading of 2 means miners are pulling in twice their yearly-average revenue — comfortably profitable, but short of the ~4× zone that has marked past tops. If price then collapsed and daily revenue fell to $12M against the same $30M average, the multiple would print 0.4 — into the historical capitulation zone, where mining is unprofitable relative to recent history.

High readings (historically above roughly 4×) mean miner revenue has spiked well above its own trailing-year norm — usually because price has risen sharply. Miners are well-capitalized under those conditions, and historically that's coincided with cycle tops, since elevated miner profitability has often lined up with the same price extension driving other valuation signals to extremes.

Low readings (historically below roughly 0.5×) mean miner revenue has fallen well under its trailing-year norm — mining is unprofitable relative to recent history, which has historically forced weaker miners to capitulate and sell reserves. Those episodes have clustered near bear-market bottoms.

The Puell Multiple is most informative in its extremes and least informative in the middle, where it spends most of its time. Its distinct edge is that it views the cycle through the seller most forced to act — miners, who have ongoing costs and must sell to cover them. When their revenue is squeezed to the bottom of its range, the marginal seller is exhausted; when it is stretched to the top, that supply pressure is building.

Because it moves largely with price, it adds the most value when it disagrees with a pure valuation read. Cross-check it against a cost-basis gauge like the MVRV Z-Score, and always mentally adjust for where the last halving sits relative to the trailing-year window.

Miner-profitability signals belong to the on-chain & valuation family the Risk Model weighs most heavily. The model doesn't act on a single indicator's 4× or 0.5× threshold; instead it blends miner economics with cost-basis, cycle, momentum, and sentiment signals, so a halving-driven distortion in one metric is diluted by the others. See the published category weights on the Methodology page.

The Puell Multiple is driven by price changes as much as by anything specific to mining economics — since issuance is roughly fixed by the protocol's emission schedule (subject to halving events), most of the multiple's movement simply reflects price relative to its own trailing year. In that sense it partly overlaps with price-extension signals rather than adding a fully independent view.

It's also sensitive to halvings, which mechanically cut issuance in half overnight and temporarily distort the ratio independent of any change in price or sentiment. And as fee revenue grows relative to the shrinking block subsidy over future cycles, the relationship between issuance and total miner income will keep changing — so historical thresholds may not map cleanly onto future ones.