Glossary / Realized Cap
Realized Cap
Realized Cap values each bitcoin not at today's market price but at the price it last moved on-chain, then sums the whole supply — a rough proxy for the network's aggregate cost basis, and the building block behind MVRV and NUPL.
How it's calculated
Ordinary market cap values every coin at the current price. Realized cap instead values each individual coin (technically, each unspent transaction output) at the price it was worth the last time it moved on-chain, then sums all of them together:
A coin that hasn't moved since it was mined in 2011 is still counted at its 2011 price, not today's. That makes realized cap track something closer to the total amount of capital that has actually flowed into Bitcoin and not yet been sold, rather than the paper value of the supply at today's quote.
A worked example
Imagine a tiny network of just three coins: one last moved at $10, one at $100, and one at $1,000. Regardless of today's price, realized cap is:
If today's price is $1,200, market cap is 3 × $1,200 = $3,600, while realized cap stays $1,110 — so market value is well above aggregate cost basis (MVRV > 1, the network in profit). If the $1,000 coin then moves at $1,200, its stamp updates to $1,200 and realized cap rises to $1,310. This is why realized cap drifts up as coins change hands at higher prices, and can fall when they change hands at lower ones.
Why it matters
Realized cap is rarely used on its own — its value is as the reference point for other metrics. MVRV (market cap ÷ realized cap) and its Z-score cousin, and NUPL ((market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap), both exist because comparing today's price to what holders actually paid is a more meaningful valuation signal than price alone. Realized cap is also the input behind realized-price cost-basis charts, which plot the average acquisition price across different holder cohorts.
How Alphabit's Risk Model uses it
Realized cap isn't a standalone input to the Risk Model — it's the foundation the model's cost-basis valuation signals are built on. The MVRV Z-Score and NUPL that feed the on-chain & valuation family both derive from it. See the Methodology page for how that family is weighted.
Limitations
Realized cap is a proxy, not a survey of actual cost basis. Coins that haven't moved in years — lost keys, long-term cold storage, exchange cold wallets that get reshuffled — still anchor to whatever price they last transacted at, which can meaningfully understate or distort the true distribution of holder cost basis, especially for very old coins. A batch of ancient coins suddenly moving can also jolt realized cap in ways that reflect accounting, not fresh demand.
Frequently asked questions
Market cap values every coin at today's price (price × circulating supply). Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then sums them. Market cap is the paper value of the supply now; realized cap approximates how much capital actually flowed in and hasn't been sold.
Realized price is realized cap divided by circulating supply — the average on-chain cost basis per coin. It is often used as a long-term support/valuation reference: price trading below realized price means the average holder is underwater.
On its own it is rarely the signal; its importance is as the reference point behind MVRV, MVRV Z-Score, and NUPL. Comparing today's price to what holders actually paid is a more meaningful valuation read than price alone.
Yes. When coins that were acquired at high prices move (are 'spent') at lower prices, their contribution is re-stamped at the newer, lower price, which can pull realized cap down — typically during deep capitulation.
Realized Cap is the denominator behind MVRV and NUPL — understanding it makes both of those metrics easier to reason about.
Educational content, not financial advice. See the disclosure.