The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator: Has It Ever Missed a Bitcoin Top?

The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator has triggered exactly twice in verifiable daily price history — within a day of Bitcoin's December 2017 cycle top, and right at the April 2021 local top — but it never fired again for the higher November 2021 peak, or for any point since, despite Bitcoin trading far above both levels years later.

Computed directly from real daily BTC/USD closes (Yahoo Finance) using the indicator's public formula — 111-day moving average crossing above 2× the 350-day moving average. See Pi-Cycle Top Indicator Explainedfor how it's calculated.

Every verifiable crossover, in order

Reliable daily BTC/USD pricing only goes back to September 2014, so the widely-cited 2013 crossover isn't independently checked here — everything below is a direct computation, not a repeated claim:

Dec 16, 2017 — Crossover fires$19,497

One day before Bitcoin's cycle top (~$19,783) — as close a call as the indicator has made.

Mar 6, 2018 — Resets$10,780

111DMA falls back below 2× the 350DMA as the bear market deepens.

Apr 11, 2021 — Crossover fires$60,205

Right at 2021's first local top, ahead of a ~50% correction into July.

Apr 24, 2021 — Resets$50,051

Resets during the correction — now able to fire again if price re-extends far enough.

The top it missed

Bitcoin didn't stop at April 2021's $60,205 local top — it corrected, then ran to a new cycle high of roughly $67,567 in November 2021. The Pi-Cycle crossover never fired a second time for that higher top. It has not fired again since, through a further rally that reached roughly $124,750in October 2025 — a price nearly double April 2021's crossover level.

That's a genuine miss, not a technicality: an investor relying on Pi-Cycle Top alone to signal when to reduce exposure would have gotten no signal at all for either of Bitcoin's two subsequent, much higher cycle peaks.

Why the indicator can go silent

Once a crossover fires and then resets (the 111DMA falling back below 2× the 350DMA during a correction), it needs price to re-accelerate hard enough, relative to both moving averages, to cross a second time. A slower grind higher, or a cycle with several moderate local tops instead of one sharp blow-off top, can push price to new highs without ever reproducing the specific acceleration ratio the crossover requires — which is exactly what happened between April 2021 and the higher tops that followed.

The honest takeaway

When Pi-Cycle Top fires, it has been a genuinely sharp signal — both verified crossovers landed within days or weeks of a real local or cycle top. But its silence isn't evidence that a top hasn't happened — it's only evidence that price hasn't re-accelerated in the specific shape the indicator looks for. Treat a crossover as a real signal worth weighing, and treat the absence of one as no signal at all, not as reassurance.

Limitations

This dataset starts September 2014, so the often-cited 2013 crossover isn't verified here. Moving averages are also sensitive to the exact price series used (spot index vs. a single exchange's feed) — crossover dates from other sources may land a day or two apart from the ones above without either being wrong.

How Pi-Cycle Top is calculated →

Educational content, not financial advice. See the disclosure.