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On-Chain Metrics Compared
MVRV Z-Score, Mayer Multiple, Pi-Cycle Top, and Puell Multiple all flag Bitcoin cycle extremes, but from different angles — holder cost basis, price trend, moving-average crossover, and miner economics. Here's how they compare and when each is most useful.
| Metric | Measures | Angle | Update cadence | Best used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | Market cap vs. aggregate cost basis | Holder profit/loss | Slow-moving, cycle-scale | Gauging how much unrealized profit is sitting in the market |
| Mayer Multiple | Price vs. 200-day moving average | Trend extension | Medium — reacts over weeks to months | A simple, price-only overextension check with no on-chain data required |
| Pi-Cycle Top | 111-day MA vs. 2× 350-day MA crossover | Trend extension (binary signal) | Fires once, historically near cycle tops | A top-confirmation trigger, not an ongoing risk gauge |
| Puell Multiple | Daily miner revenue vs. its own 365-day average | Miner economics | Medium, sensitive to halving events | Reading mining-driven sell or capitulation pressure |
Why four different metrics, not one
Each of these approaches the same underlying question — is Bitcoin overextended right now? — from a genuinely different data source: MVRV from holder cost basis, Mayer and Pi-Cycle from price trend alone, and Puell from mining economics. When several independent angles agree, that's a stronger signal than any one of them alone — which is the same logic behind combining signal families into a single composite score rather than watching one indicator in isolation.
Price-only vs. on-chain
Mayer Multiple and Pi-Cycle Top need nothing but historical price — they're simple, fast to compute, and easy to verify yourself. MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple require on-chain data (realized cap, miner issuance), which takes more infrastructure to compute but captures information price alone can't see — specifically, what holders actually paid and how miners are actually faring, rather than just where price has been.
Continuous gauges vs. a one-shot trigger
MVRV, Mayer, and Puell all update continuously and can be read at any point in a cycle. Pi-Cycle Top is different — it's a binary crossover that has historically fired once near a cycle top and then stayed silent, which makes it a confirmation trigger rather than an ongoing gauge you'd check every week.
See how Alphabit combines signals across these categories — on-chain valuation, price extension, sentiment, and macro — into a single weekly 0–10 score.
Educational content, not financial advice. See the disclosure.