Mayer Multiple

The formula is deliberately simple: current price divided by the 200-day simple moving average (200DMA):

A reading of 1.0 means price is sitting exactly on its 200-day trend; above 1.0 means price has run ahead of it, below 1.0 means price has fallen behind it. It's named after Trace Mayer, who popularized the ratio and the historical thresholds most commonly cited around it.

If Bitcoin trades at $90,000 while its 200-day moving average sits at $60,000:

A multiple of 1.5 says price is 50% above its trailing-year trend — elevated, but well short of the ~2.4 zone that has marked past tops. If instead price fell to $54,000 against the same $60,000 average, the multiple would be 0.9: price below its own 200-day trend, the deep-value side of the range.

Because the 200-day average smooths out roughly nine months of price action, the multiple reacts slowly enough to filter weekly noise while still capturing meaningful trend extension. Readings above roughly 2.4× have historically clustered near cycle tops — price running more than double its own trailing-year trend has, in the past, marked unsustainable extension.

Readings below roughly 1.0 — price sitting under its own 200-day average — have historically coincided with deep value periods during bear markets, when price has fallen well behind the broader trend.

The Mayer Multiple is best read as a continuous stretch gauge: not "buy at X, sell at Y," but a daily sense of how far price has pulled from its base and therefore how much mean-reversion risk is building. Because it's price-only, it pairs well with a cost-basis metric like the MVRV Z-Score — when price extension and on-chain valuation are both stretched at once, the signals reinforce rather than merely echo each other.

Trend-extension ratios like the Mayer Multiple belong to the cycle & price-extension family, one of the four families blended into the Risk Model's 0–10 score. The model reads extension as a gradient and balances it against valuation, momentum, and sentiment, so no single price-only ratio drives the read. See the Methodology page for the family weights.

The Mayer Multiple uses a fixed 200-day window and doesn't adjust for Bitcoin's changing volatility or market size over time — a young, thin market and a mature, deep one don't necessarily extend to the same multiple before reversing. The top-zone threshold has fallen across cycles as volatility compressed. Like every historically-derived threshold in this glossary, it describes what has happened, not what must happen again.